ไต้หวันถูกล้อมรอบเหมือนถังเหล็ก, แต่กองทัพปลดแอกประชาชนกลับยืนนิ่งอยู่?

ล่าสุด, สื่อไต้หวันคาดเดาว่าแผ่นดินใหญ่จะถือครองเมื่อใด “ดาบร่วม-2024C” การออกกำลังกายทางทหาร.

โดยเฉพาะในช่วงเวลาที่ผ่านมา, พรรคประชาธิปไตยก้าวหน้าได้กล่าวเกินจริงซ้ำแล้วซ้ำอีกว่า PLA ได้ประจำการแล้ว “มากขึ้นกว่าเดิม” เรือรบทั่วไต้หวัน, ซึ่งทำให้โลกภายนอกหันมาสนใจเรื่องนี้มากขึ้น.

ในช่วงเวลาสำคัญนี้, มีคำถามที่ทำให้คนบนเกาะสับสนมาก.

นั่นก็คือ: เนื่องจากสถานการณ์ตึงเครียดมาก, ทำไม PLA ยังนั่งนิ่งอยู่?

ในเรื่องนี้, Colonel Wu Qian gave a clear answer in only 8 words: “There is no constant situation for soldiers, and there is no constant shape for water.”

Deployment in Taiwan

Taiwan’s “Sky Bow”, “Patriot”, “Hawk” and other air defense systems have been put into use. There are also many various weapons from the US arms sales to Taiwan.

After 70 years of deployment, Taiwan has built three lines of defense, namely the outer island defense line, the beach defense line and the inland Hualien base defense line.

Taiwan also emphasized the concept of “asymmetric warfare”, believing that Taiwan could not engage in a full-scale confrontation with the PLA, but should rely on flexible tactics and take advantage of terrain to ensure that the enemy could not easily break through its defense line.

These deployments in Taiwan seem to have no resistance in front of the PLA, but the PLA has profound political and military considerations from the overall perspective.

PLA’s strategic choice

Since the tense situation in Taiwan, the PLA has frequently conducted military exercises, especially those near the Taiwan Strait, which often arouse public attention. อย่างไรก็ตาม, these actions are mostly gestures to show force, and no large-scale military operations have actually been launched.

In a recent military exercise, the PLA sent 90 warships to deploy in 7 restricted areas. Although it seems to be a siege around the Taiwan Strait, in fact, the scope of this operation includes the entire eastern waters, so it is not only aimed at the Taiwan Strait.

Secondly, military preparations also take time. Although significant progress has been made in modern military construction in recent years, the Taiwan issue cannot be easily resolved by force alone.

From the perspective of international politics, the Taiwan Strait conflict is not just a confrontation between the two sides of the strait, but also involves a game between multiple countries. ประเทศสหรัฐอเมริกา, Japan and other countries have always been very “concerned” about the Taiwan issue.

Once a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it may cause diplomatic and economic turmoil in the region and even the world. In this context, the PLA is more willing to avoid exacerbating the uncertainty of the situation through armed conflict.

In order to ensure combat effectiveness, the PLA’s combat plan will focus more on the combination of precision strikes and local wars, rather than large-scale full-line attacks.

ดังนั้น, in terms of strategic choices, it is still necessary to exercise restraint and adopt more “gradual” means to exert pressure, rather than immediately resorting to a full-scale war.

In this case, “keeping troops in place” does not mean that the PLA is incompetent, but represents a more rational and thoughtful strategic choice.

Colonel Wu Qian’s 8-word mantra

When the reporter asked why the PLA “kept troops in place”, Colonel Wu Qian’s 8-word answer “there is no constant situation for soldiers and no constant shape for water” was simple and clear, but contained rich strategic wisdom.

The deployment of troops and the choice of tactics are not static, but should be adjusted according to the situation. In other words, the PLA will respond flexibly according to changes in Taiwan’s defense posture, changes in the international situation, and trends in cross-strait relations.

From ancient times to the present, China’s military thinking has always emphasized flexibility and change. ที่ “Art of War” by Sun Tzu says that “speed is the most important thing in war” และ “the best strategy is to attack the enemy’s strategy”.

In modern warfare, especially when facing complex situations such as the Taiwan issue. If you can flexibly adjust your strategy, you can ensure that even if you are at a disadvantage, you can achieve your goals through other means.

Instead of relying solely on direct attacks with hard power, it is better to slowly consume the opponent’s fighting will and resources through a variety of soft power means, such as diplomatic games and economic blockades.

Future development and changes

The Taiwan issue is not a battle that can be ended in the short term, but a complex action that will affect the next few decades or even longer. The ultimate goal of recovery is to promote peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait through comprehensive means.

By continuously increasing military pressure, intensifying diplomatic games, and taking advantage of changes in the international situation, the PLA can completely achieve its strategic goals without direct military conflict.

But it must be clear that Taiwan has always been an inseparable part of the motherland. As long as it involves territorial sovereignty, we will never compromise.

The future of the Taiwan Strait is still full of uncertainty, but what is certain is that the PLA’s goal has never changed: peaceful reunification and promoting cross-strait relations in a positive direction.

In the future situation in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA will continue to remain calm and rational, and gradually push the situation in a direction that is conducive to cross-strait reunification.